The 2024 U.S. election have been a nail-biter with neck-and-neck polls being published for the last few weeks. However, as of November 8th, and with only one state yet to confirm their results, Republican candidate Donald Trump has officially won the race to the White House and will become the 47th US President.
With 301 electoral votes (73,419,837 votes or 50.7%), President Trump surpassed the required 270 to secure a presidential victory and overcome the Democrat candidate Vice President Kamala Harris (226 electoral votes).
The size of President Trump’s victory and the fact that he is on course to officially become the first Republican candidate to win over 50% of the electoral vote since 2010, are arguably the most surprising points to come out of the November 5th election.
Below we break down President Trump’s victory, and what it might mean for UK businesses and digest the impact of the Senate and the House of Representatives elections.
Key Upcoming Dates in the Transition
January 3: The 119th Congress meets for the first time, with new senators and representatives taking their oaths of office.
January 6: Congress formally counts the electoral votes, confirming the presidential winner.
January 20: Inauguration Day – Donald Trump, alongside running mate J.D. Vance, will be sworn in, taking the official presidential oath and formally beginning their administration.
Arizona’s Final Vote: The Last Piece in the Puzzle
Arizona, the final state awaiting results, has delayed its announcement until at least November 11th. This delay is a part of Arizona’s state law, designed to ensure accuracy and integrity in the vote count. Should President Trump secure Arizona, it would mean he has captured all of this election’s key swing states, a strategic advantage that reflects the campaign’s intense focus on these battlegrounds.
The Role of Swing States
Swing states, aka battleground states, are often the deciding factor in U.S. presidential elections. This year, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Nevada have held this key status. Trump’s ability to secure these states has underscored his campaign’s appeal and mobilisation within regions that can sway election outcomes.
The Race for the Senate
Control of the Senate has also shifted red, with Republicans holding 52 seats to the Democrats’ 44, making it clear that a Republican-controlled Senate will shape legislative direction moving forward despite 4 counts remaining ongoing. The Senate majority will influence Cabinet confirmations and judicial appointments, giving Republicans substantial legislative leverage.
Senate seats up for election: 34 of 100
Seats required for majority: 50
Current count: Republicans at 52, Democrats at 44
The Race for the House
While Trump’s presidential win has been confirmed, control of the House of Representatives is still uncertain as counting continues. With 218 being the magical number to hold a majority, and 24 counts remain ongoing, the Republicans are stated to have secure 211 seats while Democrats, meanwhile, hold 200 seats.
Total seats up for election: 435
Seats required for majority: 218
Current tally: Republicans at 211, Democrats at 200
If Republicans win the House, they’ll have the legislative edge, able to pass bills without needing Democrat or independent support. Based on the Presidential and Senate races, the House could be the last piece of the puzzle that President Trump and the Republicans need to control each level of the judiciary, executive and legislative.
The Trump Administration’s Leadership Choices
In preparation for the new administration, President Trump has announced Susan Wiles as his White House Chief of Staff. This key role involves overseeing the Executive Office of the President and daily operations within the White House. Notably, Wiles will be the first woman to hold this position in a Trump administration, signalling a potentially historic shift in leadership dynamics.
Trump’s Economic Policies and Their Global Impact
One of the most discussed aspects of President Trump’s policy proposals has been his plan to impose new tariffs on imported goods. Former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has indicated that tariffs on foreign imports could rise to 10% for the majority of goods. Additionally, for goods of Chinese origin, this could reach up to 60%. President Trump’s justification for taking such steps is to address the current trade deficit and bolster American manufacturing. While President Trump insists these measures won’t drive inflation, many economists warn they could lead to higher consumer prices in the U.S.
For the UK, this approach signals possible shifts in trade relations. As one of America’s key allies and trade partners, the UK may find itself navigating a new trade relationship under Trump’s protectionist policies. The proposed tariffs could impact various industries, potentially changing the dynamic for UK exports into the U.S. market.
What Comes Next?
With Trump’s victory close to official, the U.S. is poised for a shift in policy and governance under a renewed Trump administration. As Arizona’s final results roll in and Congress confirms the count in
For more information on the US Election, Trump’s plans and what they could mean for UK businesses, keep a look out for our Winter ‘24/’25 edition of Horizon Magazine.
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